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2010 is the Year We Bounce Out of a Recession
By Luis Paez | October 21, 2009
I came across a great graphic as part of Mary Meeker’s presentation covered on TechCrunch. It shows that according to Morgan Stanley’s regression analysis the United States will see spending on Advertising increase in 2010. This is important in light of the fact that many organizations are still reviewing each and every cost on the balance sheet. While important to up efficiency, it is always important to be mindful of the spending that will drive the economy as a whole back to a healthy state.
For those who care more about the analysis, I’ll dive deeper in: Morgan Stanley’s regression analysis takes into account real GDP and links it to Ad spend, from the years 1986 – 2008. The upshot is that if the real GDP is more than 2% in 2010, then we can expect ad spends to increase as well, if history is any indication. The more pronounced the real GDP percentage, then the more growth we’ll see in Advertising.
This analysis begs the question: what do we think the real GDP will be in 2010? According to the August 2009 Blue Chip Economic Forecast, cited by the State of Hawaii, and other source, indicates that real GDP in 2010 will likely be 2.7% – less than previously projected, but great news when taken into consideration with Morgan Stanley’s analysis. That means that a consensus is forming that the economic “reset” has occurred, and we can look forward to other businesses being generally more optimistic.
It also means that competition in the mailbox may increase in 2010, as businesses across the board get ready to start winning back business they lost over the past few months. Get ready. It’s coming.